Crypto industry executives predict bitcoin will surge to fresh all-time highs above $100,000 next year, citing positive developments like potential ETF approvals drawing in big investors.
After a brutal “crypto winter” in 2022, optimism is returning that 2024 could see bitcoin ignite a new bull run to unprecedented prices. Bullish predictions come as the market leaves behind a series of devastating industry scandals.
“It feels that [2023] was a year to get ready for the bull run that is yet to come. But the sentiment is very hopeful for [2024] and 25,” said Pascal Gauthier, CEO of hardware wallet maker Ledger, in an interview with CNBC last week.
Bitcoin’s last record peak of nearly $69,000 came in November 2021. Since then, the pioneering cryptocurrency has plunged over 70% amid a series of crypto calamities – from failed projects and bankruptcies to criminal indictments of major industry players.
Most notably, FTX collapsed late last year with its 30-year-old founder Sam Bankman-Fried facing over 100 years in prison after being found guilty on seven counts of fraud. Meanwhile, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao stepped down as CEO of rival exchange Binance to resolve a Justice Department probe into Binance’s anti-money laundering compliance.
Many investors hope the FTX debacle slammed the door shut on crypto’s turbulent growing pains, clearing the way for bulls to again take charge in 2024.
“I think that once you get the speculative phase out of the way…then you can get real builders focusing on the technology and the problems that can solve in the world,” said David Marcus, CEO of bitcoin infrastructure startup Lightspark and former head of Facebook’s failed Diem stablecoin project.
Marcus and other crypto leaders say the market can now shift its focus to technological innovation rather than hype-driven manias.
Top Predictions for Bitcoin in 2024
Bold calls for bitcoin’s resurgence in 2024 began with Standard Chartered Bank reiterating its April forecast that bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of next year. The bank sees signs of pent-up institutional investment flowing into bitcoin investment vehicles like exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“I think what the ETF means really is that bitcoin is going mainstream, and that’s what people were waiting for,” said Ledger’s Gauthier.
Last week, crypto financial services provider Matrixport released its 2024 outlook projecting bitcoin would first hit $63,140 by next April before reaching $125,000 by end of year.
“Based on our inflation model, the macro environment is expected to remain a robust tailwind for crypto,” explained Matrixport. “Another decline in inflation is anticipated, prompting the Federal Reserve to likely initiate interest rate cuts. Combined with geopolitical crosscurrents, this healthy dose of monetary support should push Bitcoin to new highs in 2024.”
When asked if bitcoin could breach $100k in 2024, Gauthier replied “maybe” but declined to give a specific forecast. Other market analysts say much depends on whether US regulators finally approve a spot bitcoin ETF in the coming months.
“An all out ETF rejection could play havoc to this run as well, hence definitely something to be mindful of,” cautioned Vijay Ayyar, vice president of exchange CoinDCX.
Path to $100K Paved by Halving, ETF Hopes
Two key events underpin these bold predictions for 2024 – bitcoin’s next halving and growing anticipation of ETF approvals.
Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins under its programming. To control the pace of distribution, bitcoin’s code slashes in half the mining rewards – newly minted coins given to miners processing network transactions – every four years or so. This quadrennial “halving” cuts bitcoin’s inflation rate over time.
The next halving is expected in May 2024. Investors often buy ahead of these scheduled supply squeezes, betting on upside price pressure.
“A number of market participants are expecting a bull run some time after the halving, but given the ETF news, we could very well have a run before that leaving most investors on the sidelines. That could cause a massive upward run in the price,” said Ayyar.
Indeed, bitcoin’s latest revival is already being driven by enthusiasm for a US spot bitcoin ETF approval. Futures-based bitcoin ETFs already trade in the US, but experts predict a spot bitcoin product opening the floodgates to billions in fresh institutional capital.
After years of rejection, regulators now appear to be warming up to finally greenlighting a spot bitcoin fund. The new prod for prices comes as crypto emerges from its bear slumber. Bitcoin has already bounced over 120% from its recent bottom, rallying back above $38,000.
“What we see is strong fundamentals,” remarked Ledger’s Gauthier. He and other industry leaders think both the technical halving and potential spot ETF approval could propel bitcoin to dazzling new heights over $100k through 2024.